2025 F1 title fight: every championship scenario for Piastri, Norris, Verstappen & more

The 2025 Formula 1 season continues to be an absolute thriller, and with the conclusion of round 18, the championship battle has only intensified. Five of the sport's brightest talents remain in the hunt for the ultimate prize, but the margins are getting smaller and the stakes are getting higher.

Here's the updated breakdown of how the 2025 Formula 1 Driver's Championship can be won.

The State of Play

After 18 incredible rounds, the pressure is mounting. We still have five drivers with a mathematical chance of being crowned champion. With six Grands Prix and three crucial Sprint races left on the calendar, a total of 174 points are still available.

The gap at the top has tightened, making every single point critical from here on out. Here are the current standings for our title contenders:

1st Oscar Piastri: 336 points
2nd Lando Norris: 314 points
3rd Max Verstappen: 273 points
4th George Russell: 237 points
5th Charles Leclerc: 173 points

Let's dive into the updated paths to glory for each driver.

Oscar Piastri: still leading, but the heat is on

Oscar Piastri holds onto his championship lead, but his advantage has narrowed. The Australian sensation needs a strong finish to the season to convert his brilliant performance into a maiden F1 title, especially with his teammate and a charging Verstappen closing in.

Rule of Thumb: Maximize wins in both Sundays and Sprints while ensuring main rivals drop significant points.

How Oscar Piastri can win the 2025 F1 title:

Scenario 1: Win at least 4 of the remaining 6 Sundays and 2 of the 3 Sprints, while Norris finishes P3 or lower in 3 Sundays and scores under 5 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 2: Secure podiums in all Sundays and win all 3 Sprints, while Norris fails to score in one Sunday and Verstappen finishes outside the top 5 in 2 Sundays.
Scenario 3: Win 3 Sundays and 1 Sprint, finish in the top 2 in the rest, while Norris finishes outside the top 4 in 4 Sundays and scores under 3 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 4: Score a podium in all Sundays and win 2 Sprints, while Norris and Verstappen each fail to score in one Sunday and finish outside the top 6 in one Sprint.
Scenario 5: Win 5 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Norris finishes P2 or lower in all Sundays and Verstappen scores under 6 points in all Sprints.

Lando Norris: the challenger is closer than ever

Lando Norris has closed the gap to his teammate and is in a prime position to challenge for his first World Championship. His mission is clear: keep the pressure on and outperform Piastri in the final stretch.

Rule of Thumb: Outperform Piastri consistently in both Sundays and Sprints to close the gap.

How Lando Norris can win the 2025 F1 title:

Scenario 1: Win 4 Sundays and 2 Sprints, finish in the top 2 in the rest, while Piastri finishes outside the top 3 in 3 Sundays and scores under 5 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 2: Win all 3 Sprints and 3 Sundays, while Piastri fails to score in one Sunday and Verstappen finishes outside the top 5 in 2 Sundays.
Scenario 3: Secure a podium in all Sundays and win 2 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 4 in 2 Sundays and Verstappen scores under 3 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 4: Win 5 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes P2 or lower in all Sundays and Verstappen scores under 6 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 5: Win 3 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 3 in 2 Sundays and Verstappen fails to score in one Sprint.

Max Verstappen: the champion is fighting back

Never, ever rule out Max Verstappen. The reigning champion is on a mission and has clawed back valuable points. To clinch a fifth title, he needs to be flawless and capitalize on any mistakes from the McLaren duo ahead.

Rule of Thumb: Dominate the remaining Sundays and Sprints while both Piastri and Norris underperform.

How Max Verstappen can win the 2025 F1 title:

Scenario 1: Win 5 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri and Norris each finish outside the top 3 in 3 Sundays and score under 5 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 2: Win all 3 Sprints and 4 Sundays, while Piastri fails to score in one Sunday and Norris finishes outside the top 5 in 2 Sundays.
Scenario 3: Make the podium in all Sundays and win 2 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 4 in 3 Sundays and Norris scores under 3 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 4: Win 3 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 3 in 2 Sundays and Norris fails to score in one Sprint.
Scenario 5: Win 4 Sundays and 2 Sprints, finish in the top 2 in the rest, while Piastri and Norris each finish outside the top 5 in 2 Sundays.

George Russell: the ultimate dark horse

George Russell's path to the championship is steep, but it's not impossible. He needs an almost perfect run to the finish and a significant dose of misfortune for the three drivers ahead of him. It's a long shot, but in Formula 1, anything can happen.

Rule of Thumb: Win big in both formats and rely on all three main rivals losing points.

How George Russell can win the 2025 F1 title:

Scenario 1: Win 5 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri, Norris, and Verstappen each finish outside the top 3 in 3 Sundays and score under 5 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 2: Win all 3 Sprints and 4 Sundays, while Piastri fails to score in one Sunday and Norris finishes outside the top 5 in 2 Sundays.
Scenario 3: Secure a podium in all Sundays and win 2 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 4 in 3 Sundays and Norris scores under 3 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 4: Win 3 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 3 in 2 Sundays and Norris fails to score in one Sprint.
Scenario 5: Win 4 Sundays and 2 Sprints, finish in the top 2 in the rest, while Piastri and Norris each finish outside the top 5 in 2 Sundays.

Charles Leclerc: the miracle worker

Charles Leclerc's championship hopes are hanging by a thread, but the Ferrari star is still mathematically in the fight. He requires nothing short of a miracle, needing to dominate the final races while every other contender suffers multiple setbacks.

Rule of Thumb: Win nearly all remaining events and hope all main rivals have multiple poor results.

How Charles Leclerc can win the 2025 F1 title:

Scenario 1: Win all remaining 6 Sundays and 3 Sprints, while Piastri, Norris, Verstappen, and Russell each finish outside the top 3 in 4 Sundays and score under 5 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 2: Win 5 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri fails to score in one Sunday, Norris finishes outside the top 5 in 3 Sundays, and Verstappen scores under 3 points in 2 Sprints.
Scenario 3: Land on the podium in all Sundays and win 2 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 4 in 4 Sundays, Norris scores under 3 points in 2 Sprints, and Verstappen fails to score in one Sunday.
Scenario 4: Win 4 Sundays and 2 Sprints, finish top 2 in the rest, while Piastri, Norris, and Verstappen each finish outside the top 5 in 3 Sundays.
Scenario 5: Win 3 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 3 in 3 Sundays, Norris fails to score in one Sprint, and Verstappen finishes outside the top 6 in one Sunday.

With the championship fight this close, the end of the 2025 Formula 1 season is set to be unforgettable. Who is your pick for the title?