2025 F1 title fight: every championship scenario for Piastri, Norris, Verstappen & more

After 17 rounds of thrilling action, the 2025 Formula 1 season is shaping up to be an all-time classic. Five drivers are still in mathematical contention for the coveted World Championship crown. With seven Grands Prix and three Sprint races remaining, a total of 199 points are still up for grabs.

Currently, McLaren's Oscar Piastri leads the pack with 324 points. His teammate, Lando Norris, is in hot pursuit with 299 points. Four-time champion Max Verstappen sits in third with 255 points, while Mercedes' George Russell (212 points) and Ferrari's Charles Leclerc (165 points) are also still in the fight.

Here are the paths to glory for each of the championship hopefuls.

Oscar Piastri: The Man to Beat

As the current championship leader, Oscar Piastri is in the strongest position. However, with his teammate and a hungry Max Verstappen close behind, he can't afford to rest on his laurels. To secure his maiden F1 title, the young Australian needs to maintain his consistency and fend off the chasing pack.

Rule of Thumb: Maximize Sunday wins and secure strong Sprint results while ensuring main rivals drop significant points.

How Oscar Piastri Can Win the 2025 F1 Title:

Scenario 1: Win 4 of the remaining Sunday races and 2 Sprints, while Norris finishes P3 or lower in at least 3 Sundays and scores under 5 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 2: Secure podiums in all remaining Sundays with 3 wins, plus win all 3 Sprints, while Norris fails to score in one Sunday and Verstappen finishes outside the top 5 in two Sundays.
Scenario 3: Win 5 Sundays and 1 Sprint, while Norris finishes P4 or lower in 4 Sundays and Verstappen scores under 10 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 4: Take 3 Sunday wins and 2 Sprint wins, with podiums in all other events, while Norris has two non-scoring Sundays and Verstappen finishes outside the top 8 in two Sprints.
Scenario 5: Win all remaining Sundays, finish top 2 in all Sprints, while Norris finishes P2 or lower in every Sunday and Verstappen fails to score in one Sprint.

Lando Norris: The Challenger

Lando Norris has been a formidable force all season and is Piastri's closest challenger. To clinch his first-ever World Championship, Norris needs to outperform his teammate and hope for some slip-ups from the Australian.

Rule of Thumb: Focus on winning key Sundays and dominating Sprints while forcing Piastri into lower finishes.

How Lando Norris Can Win the 2025 F1 Title:

Scenario 1: Win 5 Sundays and 2 Sprints, while Piastri finishes P3 or lower in 4 Sundays and scores under 6 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 2: Win all 3 Sprints and 4 Sundays, while Piastri fails to score in one Sunday and Verstappen finishes outside the top 5 in two Sundays.
Scenario 3: Secure podiums in all Sundays with 3 wins, plus win 2 Sprints, while Piastri has two non-scoring Sundays and Verstappen scores under 8 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 4: Win 4 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes P2 or lower in every Sunday and Verstappen fails to score in one Sprint.
Scenario 5: Take 3 Sunday wins and 2 Sprint wins, with podiums in all other events, while Piastri has one non-scoring Sunday and Verstappen finishes outside the top 8 in two Sprints.

Max Verstappen: The Relentless Pursuer

You can never count out Max Verstappen. The reigning champion has had a tougher season than usual but is still very much in contention. To secure a fifth consecutive title, he'll need to be at his dominant best and hope his McLaren rivals falter.

Rule of Thumb: Dominate both Sundays and Sprints while ensuring Piastri and Norris drop crucial points.

How Max Verstappen Can Win the 2025 F1 Title:

Scenario 1: Win 6 Sundays and 2 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 3 in 5 Sundays and Norris scores under 6 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 2: Win all 3 Sprints and 5 Sundays, while Piastri fails to score in one Sunday and Norris finishes outside the top 5 in three Sundays.
Scenario 3: Secure podiums in all Sundays with 4 wins, plus win 2 Sprints, while Piastri has two non-scoring Sundays and Norris scores under 8 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 4: Win 4 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes P2 or lower in every Sunday and Norris fails to score in one Sprint.
Scenario 5: Take 3 Sunday wins and 2 Sprint wins, with podiums in all other events, while Piastri has one non-scoring Sunday and Norris finishes outside the top 8 in two Sprints.

George Russell: The Dark Horse

George Russell is an outside contender but still has a mathematical chance. He'll need a near-perfect run-in and a significant amount of luck, with the top three drivers all needing to have a disastrous end to their seasons.

Rule of Thumb: Win consistently in both formats and rely on rivals having multiple poor results.

How George Russell Can Win the 2025 F1 Title:

Scenario 1: Win 6 Sundays and 2 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 3 in 5 Sundays and Norris scores under 6 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 2: Win all 3 Sprints and 5 Sundays, while Piastri fails to score in one Sunday and Norris finishes outside the top 5 in three Sundays.
Scenario 3: Secure podiums in all Sundays with 4 wins, plus win 2 Sprints, while Piastri has two non-scoring Sundays and Norris scores under 8 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 4: Win 4 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes P2 or lower in every Sunday and Norris fails to score in one Sprint.
Scenario 5: Take 3 Sunday wins and 2 Sprint wins, with podiums in all other events, while Piastri has one non-scoring Sunday and Norris finishes outside the top 8 in two Sprints.

Charles Leclerc: The Long Shot

Charles Leclerc's chances are slim, but the Monegasque driver is a proven race winner. He will need a miraculous turn of events, including dominant performances from himself and major issues for all the drivers ahead of him in the standings.

Rule of Thumb: Achieve maximum wins and capitalize on rivals' poor performances in both formats.

How Charles Leclerc Can Win the 2025 F1 Title:

Scenario 1: Win all remaining Sundays and 2 Sprints, while Piastri finishes outside the top 3 in 6 Sundays and Norris scores under 5 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 2: Win 6 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri fails to score in one Sunday and Norris finishes outside the top 5 in four Sundays.
Scenario 3: Secure podiums in all Sundays with 5 wins, plus win 2 Sprints, while Piastri has three non-scoring Sundays and Norris scores under 8 points in all Sprints.
Scenario 4: Win 4 Sundays and all 3 Sprints, while Piastri finishes P2 or lower in every Sunday and Norris fails to score in one Sprint.
Scenario 5: Take 3 Sunday wins and 2 Sprint wins, with podiums in all other events, while Piastri has two non-scoring Sundays and Norris finishes outside the top 8 in two Sprints.

With so many possibilities, the end of the 2025 Formula 1 season is guaranteed to be a nail-biter.