2025 Dutch GP preview: can Verstappen spoil the McLaren party?

The Formula 1 circus has returned to Zandvoort for the 2025 Dutch Grand Prix, and it's already been a weekend of high drama and standout performances. Heading into Sunday's race, McLaren has established itself as the team to beat. Lando Norris dominated all three practice sessions, only for teammate Oscar Piastri to snatch pole position in a thrilling qualifying duel. Home hero Max Verstappen could only manage third on the grid at his beloved seaside circuit, leaving the local Orange Army anxious but hopeful for race day. In this report, we'll recap the key moments from Free Practice and Qualifying, analyze the main storylines emerging so far, and offer a prediction for the Grand Prix. Zandvoort has proven to be a track where starting up front is crucial, as every Dutch GP since the event's 2021 return has been won from pole position, so Piastri's pole could prove decisive. But with unsettled weather in the mix and 72 laps of racing ahead, nothing is guaranteed. Let's dive into the weekend's developments so far.

Friday practice: Norris sets the early pace

Friday's free practice sessions saw McLaren on top, as Lando Norris issued a warning to his rivals by setting the fastest time in FP1 and repeating the feat in FP2. In the opening session, Norris led a McLaren 1-2 with Piastri second-fastest, while in the afternoon he again topped the timesheets with a lap of 1:09.890, just 0.10s clear of the field. Notably, Fernando Alonso sprung a surprise by splitting the McLarens in FP2. The veteran Spaniard put his Aston Martin P2 in that session, bumping Piastri to third, as all three ended up within a tenth of a second of each other. "Today was a good day... The car was handling well," Norris said on Friday, though he acknowledged that rivals had "caught up more than we'd like" by FP2. Indeed, Mercedes and Aston Martin showed signs of closing the gap, with George Russell fourth-fastest in FP2 and Alonso demonstrating unexpected pace.

Friday's running was marred by multiple incidents and red flags, thanks in part to blustery seaside winds catching drivers out. Early in FP2, a light drizzle moistened the track and Lance Stroll lost control of his Aston Martin on the banked Turn 3, locking up and slamming into the wall to bring out the first red flag. The impact severely damaged Stroll's car, but he emerged unscathed and remained optimistic, calling it "just a little lock-up" and noting the team had looked competitive up to that point. Later in FP2, Alex Albon triggered a second red flag when he crashed his Williams at Turn 1, after a gust of wind and a lock-up sent him into the barriers and tore off his front wing. "It's incredibly windy and we are seeing drivers getting caught out with gusts of wind," Williams team boss James Vowles explained of the tricky conditions.

There were also dramatic moments in the pit lane. Oscar Piastri nearly collided with George Russell during FP2 when Piastri was instructed to pass his slower teammate Norris in the pit lane, then suddenly swerved back onto the fast lane right in front of the approaching Mercedes. Russell had to slam on the brakes to avoid contact, later admitting "it scared me a bit" since he was not expecting such a jolt while going slowly in the pits. Stewards fined McLaren €5,000 for the unsafe release in that bizarre incident. Meanwhile, Max Verstappen had a scruffy start to his home weekend: in FP1 the Dutchman slid into the gravel at Turn 1 after botching a practice start and locking up his brakes. He improved to fifth in FP2 (after only sixth in FP1), but admitted Red Bull was "struggling a bit with the balance" on Friday. His teammate Yuki Tsunoda recovered from 16th in FP1 to seventh in FP2, showing the team made some progress by the afternoon.

Ferrari's driver lineup, Charles Leclerc alongside seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton, had a day of two halves on Friday. In FP1 the Ferraris languished down in 14th and 15th, prompting Leclerc to radio that they were "miles off" the pace. But by FP2, they had found improvements: Hamilton caught the eye with two wild spins (one in each session) but kept the car out of the barriers. He recovered to go sixth-fastest in FP2, while Leclerc was eighth, a "marked improvement" for the Scuderia. Hamilton nearly looped the car at Turn 2 in FP1 and later did a full 360-degree spin exiting Turn 9 in FP2, but each time the Briton miraculously kept control and continued. "We showed promising pace on the medium tyre in FP3, but weren't able to fully translate that into qualifying," Hamilton would later reflect, noting that the team's setup steps Friday into Saturday were encouraging. Ferrari boss Fred Vasseur admitted they had been "losing 6 to 7 tenths in two corners" on Friday, forcing a big overnight reset. By the end of Friday, McLaren still appeared to hold the upper hand, but the chasing pack was not far behind, and the unpredictable weather and wind at Zandvoort had already made their presence felt.

Final practice (FP3): McLaren 1-2 and a tight field

Saturday morning's FP3 brought more McLaren magic, with Norris completing a clean sweep of all three practice sessions. In sunny but breezy conditions, he clocked a 1:08.972 lap, notably quicker than last year's pole position time at Zandvoort, to once again lead a McLaren one-two. Piastri was second, about 0.242s adrift on the soft tires, as the papaya-colored cars solidified their status as favorites for qualifying. The dominance of the MCL39 in medium-speed corners was evident; Norris's lap was a new unofficial circuit record, indicating just how hooked-up the McLarens were around the flowing dune-side track.

Behind them, the timing sheets hinted at an incredibly tight midfield fight. George Russell put his Mercedes third in FP3, albeit 0.886s behind Norris, suggesting McLaren was in a league of its own on one-lap pace. Impressively, Carlos Sainz went fourth-quickest for Williams in final practice, underscoring the gains by the Grove squad with their star signing. Sainz's lap was only about 0.95s off the top, on par with Verstappen. The home hero Max Verstappen was fifth in FP3 for Red Bull, 0.953s down on P1, and he admitted Red Bull had to "unlock" more performance after chasing balance issues all weekend. Ferrari showed mixed fortunes: Leclerc was sixth in FP3, but Hamilton struggled to 14th after running wide off track and aborting his best laps. Hamilton's off-track excursion highlighted how finding the limit was still tricky for him in the Ferrari, though he remained upbeat about the car's improvements. Rounding out the top ten in FP3 were Albon (P7, bouncing back from his crash damage), Stroll (P8, back on track after overnight repairs), Alpine's Pierre Gasly (P9), and AlphaTauri-turned-Visa Racing Bulls driver Liam Lawson in P10. With 10 cars from eight different teams in the FP3 top ten, the stage was set for a highly competitive qualifying, but few could have predicted the shocks that Saturday afternoon would deliver.

Qualifying: Piastri pips norris in McLaren showdown

Qualifying at Zandvoort delivered edge-of-the-seat excitement, as the battle for pole came down to McLaren's dynamic duo. In an ultra-tight session, Oscar Piastri unleashed the fastest lap ever seen at this circuit, a 1:08.662 in Q3, to beat Lando Norris to pole by a mere 0.012 seconds. It was a stunning lap from the young Australian, who "struck just when it mattered most" after Norris had appeared to have the upper hand earlier. "I'm really pleased with that. The car has felt good all weekend... I managed to put it all together for my final lap, so I'm stoked to be on Pole," Piastri said after claiming the pole position, though he acknowledged there are "a few variables in play for the race" such as weather and strategy. For Norris, missing pole by such a slim margin was bittersweet. "It was close, it's been close the whole weekend," he noted, admitting he was "a little disappointed to not be on Pole" but still pleased to start P2. The front-row lockout for McLaren, the reigning constructors' champions, underscores their current form, and team principal Andrea Stella commended his drivers for "driving on the limit in an extremely close session" amid tricky gusting winds in Q3. Stella highlighted that both set laps quicker than any before around Zandvoort, and pointed out that sudden wind gusts in Q3 made conditions challenging. In the end, McLaren secured the two quickest-ever laps on this track, a fact not lost on the paddock.

Behind the McLaren duo, the grid took on an unexpected look. Max Verstappen qualified third for Red Bull, a result the Dutchman said he was "very happy" with after the team's rough start to the weekend. Verstappen had actually predicted on Friday that making the top five in qualifying would be tough, so P3 represented a mini-turnaround. His best Q3 time (1:08.925) still left him 0.263s off pole pace, a sizable gap at a short lap like Zandvoort. "We have been struggling a bit with the balance but today felt a lot more normal after some final adjustments... I am happy with P3. I think that was the absolute best we could have done," Verstappen commented, noting that a lot of cars (Mercedes, Ferrari, even Aston Martin's Alonso) were in the mix for that position. Starting from the second row in front of his adoring home fans, Verstappen's goal is clear: "Our fight will be to keep the others behind and hopefully we have enough pace for P3. We will need a bit of luck to win here but I want to target a podium tomorrow".

Q1: early drama and a big crash

The qualifying hour wasn't without drama. In Q1, the first elimination round, the tight field meant small mistakes were punished. Lance Stroll's qualifying ended almost before it began. Still recovering confidence from his FP2 shunt, Stroll crashed out in Q1 after losing the rear of his Aston Martin over the Turn 1 kerb, bringing out yellow flags and ensuring he would start 20th (last) on Sunday. The Canadian was furious with himself, calling it "really frustrating" to exit so early, especially after showing decent pace in practice. Joining Stroll on the sidelines after Q1 were both Haas drivers (Esteban Ocon in P18 and rookie Oliver Bearman P19) and Nico Hülkenberg in the Sauber-sponsored Alfa (P17). Franco Colapinto, the Argentine rookie at Alpine, narrowly missed the Q2 cut in 16th after a solid effort. Notably, Colapinto's veteran Alpine teammate Pierre Gasly did squeak through to Q2, illustrating how competitive the margins were. One early incident saw Yuki Tsunoda spin in the final minutes of Q1 (he managed to avoid damage and continued), while Kimi Antonelli briefly brought out a yellow by sliding wide; the Mercedes rookie had a scare at the chicane but recovered, knowing any damage or red flag would have been costly. Q1's tight cutoff underlined how "little mistakes would make a huge difference", as Antonelli noted, after he nearly paid the price for an error but survived into Q2.

Q2: big names bite the dust

The second qualifying segment ramped up the intensity. McLaren and Red Bull both opted for clean laps on fresh tyres, but traffic and wind remained factors. At one stage in Q2, Verstappen ended up trailing Norris on a hot lap and vented his frustration on the radio. The home favorite felt Norris didn't get out of the way ideally, causing Max to back off slightly in Sector 2. (No further action was taken, and Norris insisted it wasn't intentional, but it added spice to their rivalry.) Ultimately, Verstappen comfortably advanced to Q3, but several notable drivers were eliminated in Q2. Chief among them was Yuki Tsunoda: the Japanese driver could not follow his teammate into the top-ten shootout, winding up 12th. "I was happy with the lap, it felt clean with no mistakes, so it was strange we didn't extract the peak performance to get into Q3," a disappointed Tsunoda said, adding that missing out by just a tenth was frustrating. He'll start just outside the points in P12, aiming to move forward on Sunday. Also out in Q2 was Kimi Antonelli, the F2 graduate filling Lewis Hamilton's old seat at Mercedes. Antonelli came agonizingly close to the top ten but a "little mistake into the chicane" on his final flying lap cost him the few hundredths he needed, and he qualified 11th. The 19-year-old Italian showed impressive pace but rued that a small error made the difference: "I missed out on Q3 by a small margin...little mistakes would make a huge difference and so it proved".

Other Q2 casualties included Gabriel Bortoleto (P13) in the Sauber, who nonetheless impressed by making it that far on debut weekend, and Pierre Gasly (P14) for Alpine. Alex Albon ended up 15th in the second Williams, a letdown given he had been top ten in practice. Albon blamed a tyre warm-up mishap for his Q2 exit, explaining that a queue in the pit lane meant his tyres cooled too much before the flying lap. "We've been quick all weekend... but on our second lap in Q2 we just didn't have the tyres. After queuing for several minutes in the pitlane our out lap was compromised," Albon said, noting that being slightly off in preparation put them "out of the window" and in such a tight field "you can't afford a poor out lap". Indeed, Williams had looked poised to get both cars into Q3 (they ran top-10 in FP3), but only Sainz made the cut. As Q2 ended, Carlos Sainz narrowly advanced in the Williams and pumped his fist. The Spaniard continued to impress after his offseason switch from Ferrari, dragging the Williams FW47 into the final session with a clutch lap under pressure.

Q3: McLaren lockout and a shock second row

The final Q3 shootout saw ten drivers from seven different teams vying for pole, a refreshing diversity at the sharp end. On the first runs, Oscar Piastri set a blistering time straight out of the garage (1:08.662) that would hold up for pole. Lando Norris came close on his second attempt but fell just 0.012s short, cementing an all-McLaren front row. This result marked McLaren's first front-row lockout at Zandvoort in the modern era and confirmed that their upgrade package and car setup were perfectly dialed in. "With just a few milliseconds deciding pole position, both Oscar and Lando displayed solid performances in tricky conditions," Andrea Stella commented, proud to see his drivers pushing each other to new records. Norris, the defending race winner from 2024, will start alongside his title rival and teammate, setting up a mouth-watering intra-team battle. Piastri, meanwhile, is perfectly positioned to extend his slim 9-point championship lead over Norris on Sunday.

Perhaps the biggest shock of qualifying was Isack Hadjar, the French rookie at the rebranded Visa Cash App Racing Bulls (formerly AlphaTauri). Hadjar pulled off a stunning lap to qualify P4, sharing the second row with Verstappen and beating many established stars. "This is an outstanding result for the team. We didn't expect to reach Q3... but we delivered a really strong lap when it mattered," an ecstatic Hadjar said, calling P4 "really unexpected" after a tough Friday. The 20-year-old's joy was evident as he was congratulated by his crew in parc fermé. Crucially, Hadjar outqualified not only the Mercedes and Ferraris but also his more experienced teammate Liam Lawson, who also had an excellent session in P8. Lawson admitted P8 was "good, but of course the ambition is always to be starting further up," noting that a wind gust and tire warm-up issue meant he went slower in Q3 than he had in Q2. Still, the Racing Bulls team got both cars into Q3 for the third time in a row, and their Head of Vehicle Performance, Guillaume Dezoteux, hailed it as a "fantastic result": Hadjar's perfect lap for P4 and Lawson's P8 meant they beat all their direct midfield competitors. This sets the stage for potential big points for Red Bull's junior squad if they can maintain that pace in the race.

Elsewhere in Q3, George Russell qualified fifth for Mercedes, leading row 3. Russell was a tad frustrated with P5, feeling a second-row start was possible if he had nailed his final lap. "We didn't put the lap together at the end of Q3 and, whilst we could have fought for the second row, P5 is where we deserved to be," Russell admitted. He did tip his cap to Hadjar: "Isack did an amazing job to get ahead of us, so congratulations to him". Mercedes showed decent long-run pace in practice, so Russell remains "hopeful we can be in the fight for the podium" come race day. Alongside him in P6 will be Charles Leclerc's Ferrari. Leclerc was out-qualified by a customer-team Williams (Sainz) in FP3 and knew Ferrari lacked a bit in Zandvoort's twisty sections. "I didn't put it all together in qualifying... It's been a difficult weekend overall, the balance makes it tricky to drive," Leclerc said, adding that P6 was the maximum given his struggles in the car. He's eyeing strategy gambits to move forward: "We may be able to play with strategy tomorrow. We'll do everything we can to fight our way forward and bring home a good result".

Lewis Hamilton put the second Ferrari seventh on the grid, a result that actually buoyed his spirits. It marked Hamilton's first Q3 appearance since Silverstone, snapping a string of qualifying woes. "Today was a challenging one in terms of getting the car into the right window...there's still work to do compared to the teams ahead," Hamilton said, but he called it "an encouraging step forward" after Ferrari's tough Friday. The seven-time champ feels if mixed weather comes into play, it "hopefully will create opportunities" in the race where overtaking is hard, and he's ready to capitalize. Completing the top ten in qualifying were Liam Lawson (P8) in the second Racing Bull, Carlos Sainz (P9) in the Williams, and Fernando Alonso (P10) for Aston Martin. Sainz delivered Williams' best qualifying of the season with P9 and was satisfied: "We needed very solid laps to progress...P9 is a decent position to fight tomorrow. We'll keep an eye on the weather and give our best during the race". His boss James Vowles praised Sainz's execution and noted this might be "the closest grid we've seen in Formula 1," with tiny differences shuffling the order. Alonso, who had been second in FP2, could not work the same magic in qualifying and wound up 10th, struggling to extract more from his Aston Martin once the others turned their engines up. Still, the double champion's race craft and potentially variable conditions mean he can't be counted out for a strong result from the fifth row.

Key storylines heading into race day

With the grid now set, several intriguing storylines loom large for Sunday's Grand Prix:

McLaren Team-Mate Battle: All eyes will be on the front-row duo of Piastri and Norris. The two McLaren drivers have frequently fought each other for victories this season, and they currently sit first and second in the championship (Piastri holding a slender nine-point lead). Their rivalry has been respectful but intense. Norris conceded after qualifying that it might take "some magic, or strong strategy" to beat Piastri off pole on Sunday. "Overtaking is always tricky here and starting on pole a big benefit," Norris noted frankly. The Briton experienced that firsthand last year: in 2024 he started from pole and won, but only after losing the lead at the start and having to fight back past Verstappen on track. This time, his opponent is in equal machinery. The run to Turn 1 will be critical. Norris knows that going wheel-to-wheel with his own teammate requires a fine balance of aggression and caution, especially with a championship on the line. McLaren will be keen to avoid any intra-team fireworks that could throw away a potential 1-2 finish. If Norris cannot seize the lead off the line, he may have to rely on strategy gambits (like an undercut pit stop) or hope for a safety car to shuffle the deck. Otherwise, Piastri will be in the driver's seat, literally, to control the race. Team boss Andrea Stella hinted that both drivers will be allowed to race but expects them to keep it clean, focusing on a "pleasing result" for the team. With such "tiny margins" separating the McLarens (0.012s in quali), this battle could be one for the ages.
Verstappen at Home, Can the Dutch Lion Roar? Max Verstappen has an army of fans decked out in orange ready to erupt at any moment, but can he deliver a home victory starting from third on the grid? It's an unusual spot for Max at Zandvoort; he won this race three times in a row from pole in 2021-2023, but now finds himself behind both McLarens. "I think P3 was the absolute best Max could have done today," Red Bull's team management commented, acknowledging the McLarens are in a league of their own this weekend. Verstappen's focus will be on attacking at the start: the banked Turn 1 (Tarzan corner) offers an opportunity if he can slipstream the McLarens off the grid. He'll also have the inside line starting P3. If he can dispatch one of the papaya cars early, the atmosphere in the grandstands will reach fever pitch. Red Bull have set the car up with slightly higher downforce for better tyre longevity, hinting they expect a battle to "keep the others behind" for a podium rather than sheer pace to catch McLaren. Verstappen himself admitted they "will need a bit of luck to win here" and is targeting at least a podium in front of the home crowd. One wild card is strategy and weather; if rain or a well-timed safety car comes into play, Verstappen's vast experience could help him make the right calls and pounce. There's also the intangible of racing at home: the Dutch GP crowd energy has lifted Max before, and any slip by the McLarens could see the reigning four-time world champion ready to capitalize. Keep an eye on Turn 3's banked outside line as well; Verstappen famously used the high line to overtake in past races here and might try something bold in the opening laps. In summary, Verstappen will be in full "attack mode" to try and spoil McLaren's party, but he knows as well as anyone that an outright win will require some fortuitous circumstances.
Rookie on the Second Row: The feel-good story of qualifying was Isack Hadjar's P4, and now the 20-year-old faces the challenge of converting that grid position into a strong race result. This is by far the best starting spot of Hadjar's fledgling F1 career (he had never started above row 4 before), and he's relishing the opportunity. "I've got a good view into Turn 1, and the goal is to maintain position and score good points," Hadjar said of his race approach. The Frenchman showed composure in qualifying, and his team Visa Racing Bulls (the junior Red Bull outfit) has been on an upward trajectory, with both cars making Q3 in the last three races. The key for Hadjar will be a clean start; he'll line up alongside Verstappen on the second row, which could be daunting when the lights go out and the pack charges towards a tight Turn 1. If Hadjar can hold P4 off the line, he has a decent chance to stay in the podium conversation, especially if any of the top three hit trouble. Team principal Laurent Mekies praised Hadjar's performance as "impressive" and noted the car improvements found overnight should also translate to decent race pace. Teammate Liam Lawson (starting P8) will also be looking to move up and support the team's points haul. The Racing Bulls vs the World storyline is intriguing: they have two young drivers against the likes of Mercedes' Russell (P5), Ferrari's Leclerc (P6) and Hamilton (P7). Both Hadjar and Lawson emphasized how tight the midfield battle is and how tricky overtaking can be here, so a lot will come down to the race start and pit strategy. Hadjar admitted the race "should be straightforward" if he keeps his nose clean, but also acknowledged they "didn't expect" to be this high, so they'll be in unknown territory fighting the front-runners. All eyes will be on whether the rookie can handle the pressure. A top-five finish is in sight and would be a huge achievement for him and the rebranded team.
Ferrari and Mercedes, Who Leads the Chase? Just behind the top three teams, we have a fascinating matchup between Ferrari and Mercedes, with a bit of Williams and Aston Martin stirred in. George Russell (Mercedes) in P5, Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) P6, Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) P7, and the likes of Sainz (Williams) P9 and Alonso (Aston) P10 suggest a multi-team scrap for the lower top-ten positions. Mercedes and Ferrari both believe they have strong race pace even if qualifying wasn't perfect. "Our long run pace felt good in FP3, so I am hopeful we can be in the fight for the podium, irrespective of our starting position," Russell said. He identified that their main battle will be with "the Ferraris and the Red Bull of Max" in the race. Mercedes' simulations from practice indicate they might edge Ferrari on tire wear, but the difference is marginal. Ferrari, on the other hand, recovered well after a rough start to the weekend; team boss Fred Vasseur felt that without a small mistake by Leclerc in qualifying, P4 "could have been possible". "We have a good opportunity to do well tomorrow as our race pace seems okay. McLaren are far ahead but then it's close between ourselves, Verstappen and Russell," Vasseur noted. That sets up a chess match of strategy between the Mercedes and Ferrari pit walls. Hamilton's presence in P7 also adds intrigue; the veteran will be hungry to make progress, but he acknowledged that starting that far back at a circuit that's "notoriously difficult to overtake" means they "have our work cut out tomorrow". If Ferrari can get both cars to finish ahead of Russell, that would be a success, but if Russell's race pace shines, he may challenge Verstappen or at least split the Ferraris. Additionally, Carlos Sainz in the Williams could be a thorn in the side of the bigger teams. Sainz showed in qualifying that the Williams has genuine one-lap pace here, and historically the Williams is slippery on straights, which might make it tough to pass in race trim. Sainz is targeting a solid points finish and hinted that rising track temperatures hurt their qualifying a bit; if cooler weather or rain comes, Williams might find themselves on more equal footing in the race. And never count out Fernando Alonso. Starting 10th, Alonso is a master of race craft and could capitalize on any errors or safety car timing to vault up the order. All told, from P5 through P10 we could see a fierce battle involving four or five different constructors. With the constructor standings in mind, every point will count, and strategies could diverge (some might gamble on an aggressive two-stop or an early stop undercut to leapfrog rivals).
Unsettled Weather and Strategy Variables: The forecast for Sunday's race day remains unpredictable, and that could be the great equalizer. Teams have been warily eyeing the radar, as there is a "persistent risk of rain" around Zandvoort. In fact, showers are expected in the morning and could flirt with the coast during the race, much like we saw in last year's event which featured intermittent rain. If the track conditions change mid-race, it could throw carefully planned strategies out the window. Pirelli's tire allocation suggests the medium and hard compounds are likely to be favored if it's dry, with most teams eyeing a one-stop strategy (to avoid the difficulty of overtaking on track). However, the high energy corners (like the banked Turns 3 and 14) put significant load on the tires, so a two-stop strategy might become viable if degradation is higher than expected or if a well-timed Virtual Safety Car offers a "cheap" pit stop. Mercedes indicated that their data from practice long runs in FP2/FP3 is encouraging and that they might try to gain ground through an optimal pit strategy. Red Bull's Laurent Mekies (formerly of AlphaTauri, now involved on the pit wall) suggested the race will be "a big fight behind the McLarens with four or five cars on very similar pace", meaning strategy and pit timing could decide who emerges "best of the rest".

Overtaking at Zandvoort is notoriously difficult, as nearly every driver has noted. "This circuit can be a bit of a train," Albon said of how hard it is to pass without a significant pace delta. Toto Wolff agreed, saying that starting outside the top five "at a circuit that is notoriously difficult to overtake means we will have our work cut out". Therefore, track position, whether gained in the pits or by a clever tire call, will be paramount. If rain falls, even briefly, expect chaos in the pit lane as teams switch to inters or wets. Mixed conditions could also bring midfielders like Albon or Gasly into play if they gamble correctly on tire choices. Additionally, Zandvoort's narrow layout and gravel traps mean a Safety Car is always a possibility. Any off-track excursion can quickly bring out a caution. Last year's race was impacted by a late red flag due to a downpour; teams will remember that and have contingency plans. As James Vowles of Williams put it, "let's see what the weather brings and what we can do". This reflects an open mindset to adapt on the fly. The general consensus is that a one-stop (medium-hard) is ideal in dry conditions to minimize time lost in the pits, but a two-stop could become optimal if there's a well-timed VSC/Safety Car or if tire wear is higher with heavy fuel. Pirelli's data (from previous years) suggests a medium-to-hard one-stop is marginal but doable, whereas a sprinting two-stop (medium-medium-hard) might be faster if you can overtake, a big "if" at this track. And of course, if rain comes, all bets are off; it then comes down to driver skill and real-time strategic calls. Teams have also kept an eye on the wind, which has been changing direction; a tailwind into Turn 1 or Turn 11 could catch out drivers in the race just as it did in practice. As Mercedes' Andrew Shovlin noted, "the weather can also be unpredictable here in Zandvoort... with rain forecast for the morning, that may add another layer of jeopardy" to the race.

In summary, Sunday's race could be a straightforward affair if it stays dry and the front-runners get away cleanly, but the multitude of variables (weather, strategy, safety cars, and even team orders) means we could be in for a classic unpredictable race. The Dutch Grand Prix so far has given us a clear pecking order on pure pace (McLaren at the top, others scrambling to catch up), but as always in Formula 1, speed isn't the only factor once the lights go out.

Prediction: will McLaren seal the deal?

Given the evidence from the weekend, Oscar Piastri enters race day as the favorite to take victory in the Dutch Grand Prix. Starting from pole is a huge advantage at Zandvoort; track position is king on this tight circuit, and Piastri has the fastest car underneath him. If he manages a clean start and navigates the first lap without ceding position, the odds are that the young Australian will control the race from the front and extend his championship lead. His teammate Lando Norris will surely push him hard; Norris has been marginally quicker in race trim during practice long runs and won here last year, so he knows how to get the job done. However, Norris himself acknowledged that beating Piastri on equal terms may require "some magic" or a strategic masterstroke. McLaren are unlikely to impose team orders at this stage, so we expect a fair fight between their drivers, albeit one where the team will emphasize no contact. The most likely outcome, barring incident, is a McLaren 1-2 finish in some order, given the performance gap they've shown. A key moment will be the pit stops: whichever McLaren stops first (undercut attempt) could gain an advantage, but the team will also be wary of undercutting themselves into traffic. If Norris remains stuck behind Piastri after the first stint, McLaren might opt to split strategies (for example, one goes long and one pits early) to cover off any surprise from rivals.

For the final podium spot, Max Verstappen is the logical pick. The Red Bull may not have the pace to fight McLaren head-to-head here, but Verstappen has consistently looked like the best of the rest and he'll have massive support egging him on. Expect Verstappen to attempt an aggressive launch off the grid, perhaps even splitting the McLarens into Turn 1 if he can. More likely, he will settle into third and rely on Red Bull's typically strong race execution to consolidate that position. His race pace in FP2/FP3 indicated the team unlocked some of the balance issues, and the consensus internally was that P3 was the maximum on pure pace. Without any major surprises, Verstappen should have enough to stay ahead of the chasing pack (Mercedes, Ferrari, etc.), especially given his talent at managing tires and reacting to changing conditions. A wild card for Verstappen's podium hopes would be an early Safety Car that allows someone like Russell or Leclerc to get a free pit stop, but even then, passing Max on track at his home race would be a tall order. So, our podium prediction is Piastri first, Norris second, Verstappen third. This mirrors the qualifying top three, which might sound conservative, but the performance gaps observed and the difficulty in overtaking suggest a similar order in the race barring mishaps.

Just outside the podium, keep an eye on George Russell and the Ferrari duo. Russell is starting fifth but has hinted that Mercedes' race pace could put him in the podium fight. If either McLaren or Verstappen hits trouble (for instance, a poor start, damage, or reliability issues), Russell is well-placed to capitalize and snag a podium. The same goes for Charles Leclerc, starting sixth; Ferrari's race pace looked decent and Leclerc is a savvy racer who could use strategy to undercut Russell or even Verstappen if an opportunity arises. Lewis Hamilton from P7 is a bit more of a long shot for the podium, but never say never if rain turns the race into a chaotic lottery. Hamilton's experience and wet-weather skill are legendary, and a rain-affected race could allow him to leap forward (remember, he has nothing to lose and might gamble on an early switch to intermediates if rain intensifies).

In the midfield, Isack Hadjar is our pick for a standout result. While a podium might be out of reach on raw pace, a top-five finish for the rookie in P4 on the grid is very feasible if he keeps his cool. He showed in junior formulas a maturity in race management; the main question is whether nerves will creep in with the likes of Russell, Leclerc, and Hamilton lurking behind. If Hadjar can maintain P4 off the start, he has a great shot to finish in the top six and score his best career result. His teammate Lawson (P8 start) could also deliver points. Perhaps one of the Racing Bulls will even threaten the Ferraris or Mercedes if they struggle in traffic or tire wear. Carlos Sainz is another one to watch. Starting ninth in a Williams, Sainz could spring a surprise in the race. Williams showed strong straight-line speed which could make them hard to overtake, and Sainz's race craft is excellent. A top-eight finish for Sainz is on the cards, especially if he jumps one of the slower starters ahead (for instance, if Hamilton's Ferrari bogs down or if Hadjar makes a mistake, Sainz will pounce). Fernando Alonso, starting tenth, is the dark horse; he won't have the raw speed to charge through the field, but if rain or strategy chaos ensues, Alonso is exactly the kind of opportunist who could suddenly find himself in P5 by making the right call at the right time.

In terms of strategy predictions, we expect most teams to target a one-stop race under normal circumstances (likely starting on medium tyres then switching to hards around lap 25-30). The two McLarens will probably mirror each other unless one driver is clearly faster and tries an undercut. Red Bull might split strategies. For example, bringing Verstappen in slightly early to cover undercuts while leaving Tsunoda out longer to play a spoiler in traffic (though Tsunoda starting P12 will first have to climb into the points). Mercedes could try an aggressive undercut with Russell to leapfrog Hadjar or pressure Verstappen, given they have two cars with different track positions (Russell in clean air of P5, Antonelli down in P11 might try an alternative strategy or extended first stint). Ferrari's game plan will likely be to stick with the herd and rely on their drivers to perhaps gain a spot during pit cycles; they admitted they "need to do a better job on Friday" because playing catch-up is hard, so on Sunday they might play it safe and hope to inherit positions via reliability or errors from others. The weather, however, is the big unknown. A sprinkle at the wrong time could force everyone onto intermediates for a few laps and then back to dries, in which case reacting quickly is key. In a mixed-condition scenario, the advantage tilts toward experienced racers like Hamilton, Alonso, or Verstappen who have a sixth sense for grip in the wet. But as it stands, forecasts indicate any significant rain might hold off until late in the race, if at all; so we may see a dry start transitioning to a damp finish or vice versa. This potential for late rain means teams will be nervous about when to make that one pit stop; an ill-timed stop right before a rain shower could be disastrous. Expect strategists to be glued to the radar.

To conclude our prediction: Oscar Piastri is poised to win the 2025 Dutch Grand Prix, leveraging his pole position and McLaren's superb form to fend off teammate Norris. Norris will likely push him hard but may have to settle for second unless strategy or a bit of "magic" helps him overturn the grid order. Max Verstappen should complete the podium in third, giving the home fans something to cheer about even if the win proves elusive. Behind them, look for a tight fight among Russell, Leclerc, Hadjar, Hamilton, and perhaps Sainz and Alonso for the remaining top-five and top-ten spots. The race will be all about execution. A clean first lap, smart pit calls, and managing tires under pressure. And if the clouds decide to open up, we could be in for a truly wild Dutch GP where the form book is thrown out the window. One thing is certain: after an exciting weekend so far, fans can expect a thrilling finale on race day as the 2025 Dutch Grand Prix reaches its climax. Strap in for what promises to be an epic Sunday in Zandvoort.