How Hamilton's Singapore strategy mistake put Antonelli within reach of the F1 title

Lewis Hamilton arrived at the Singapore Grand Prix with a genuine opportunity to challenge Max Verstappen for victory. Instead, a costly strategic gamble dropped him to sixth and helped Kimi Antonelli move within reach of his maiden Formula 1 World Championship.

But what initially appeared to be a promising two-car strategic attack ultimately unravelled.

Ferrari's tyre gamble backfires

Ferrari split its starting strategies, putting Leclerc on Soft tyres and Hamilton on Mediums.

The decision carried considerable uncertainty. As explained in our Singapore Sprint weekend analysis, teams had limited dry-weather data after Saturday's rain-hit Sprint.

Once racing began, the problem became obvious.

The Medium lacked the performance Ferrari expected, with Hamilton losing more than six seconds to Leclerc over the opening 17 laps.

Ferrari responded by stopping Hamilton on Lap 18 for Softs, committing him to an ambitious 44-lap final stint.

Despite catching Leclerc, Hamilton remained behind his team-mate for much of the middle phase, unable to exploit his fresher tyres fully.

The strategy was becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

The missed opportunity under the VSC

The decisive moment arrived on Lap 39 when Lance Stroll's retirement triggered a Virtual Safety Car.

A discounted pit stop offered Hamilton an opportunity to abandon his increasingly risky one-stop strategy without surrendering too much track position.

Leclerc and Antonelli took advantage.

Hamilton did not.

According to Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur, Hamilton missed the pit entry, leaving him committed to completing the race on his ageing Softs.

As detailed in our report on Hamilton's Singapore strategy mistake, the consequences became increasingly severe after racing resumed.

Hamilton initially maintained competitive pace, but his tyres eventually deteriorated dramatically.

Norris, Antonelli and Piastri all passed the struggling Ferrari, dropping Hamilton from a potential podium to sixth.

How Antonelli gained a championship opportunity

Antonelli's recovery carried consequences far beyond the Singapore podium.

The Mercedes driver had been following Norris when the McLaren attempted to attack Hamilton at Turn 1 on Lap 54.

As the two battled, Antonelli seized the opportunity to move ahead of Norris before passing Hamilton later that lap.

That secured third place rather than fourth, earning three additional championship points.

Those points proved crucial.

Antonelli's advantage over George Russell grew to 102 points, enough to create his first mathematical opportunity to secure the championship at the United States Grand Prix.

Had Antonelli finished fourth, his lead would have been 99 points, insufficient to clinch the title in Austin.

A costly lesson for Hamilton

Hamilton accepted responsibility afterwards.

"A painful lesson today, but I take full responsibility for the decisions I made," he admitted.

Ferrari ultimately salvaged second place through Leclerc, while Verstappen claimed his first Singapore Grand Prix victory.

For Hamilton, the result represented another missed opportunity in a difficult Ferrari campaign.

For Antonelli, it could prove decisive.

One missed pit entry may have brought Formula 1's 2026 championship conclusion forward by an entire race weekend.