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Jolyon Palmer believes Ferrari are perfectly positioned to end their 2026 victory drought at the Monaco Grand Prix, describing the Italian team's prospects on the streets of Monte Carlo as a "golden chance" — one shaped by the specific characteristics of the SF-26.
The former Renault driver has pointed to Charles Leclerc as the man to deliver that result, citing the Monegasque's affinity with his home circuit as a decisive factor.
"Ferrari will definitely win a race this year," Palmer told Lottoland. "That's my hot tip this early on. I think they will be in with a great shot in Monaco. I think I would put that on Charles because I think he's just such a Monaco specialist and it's his home race and everything else."
Ferrari have been one of the most consistent performers across the opening five rounds of the 2026 campaign, accumulating four podiums and sitting second in the constructors' standings. Yet a maiden win remains elusive — largely due to the power unit limitations that have been exposed on the high-speed, straight-line-dominated circuits that have defined the early calendar.
Monaco changes that equation entirely. Strong mechanical balance, excellent minimum cornering speeds, and outstanding launch performance have been hallmarks of the SF-26 since pre-season testing. What the car lacks in raw straight-line speed is almost entirely irrelevant on a circuit where long straights simply do not exist.
Two technical elements further strengthen Ferrari's Monaco case. The Scuderia's decision to run a smaller turbocharger — designed to reduce lag and sharpen throttle response out of slow corners — should pay dividends at a venue defined by constant acceleration and braking. And as Kimi Antonelli himself noted ahead of the Monaco weekend, Ferrari's innovative exhaust-blown winglet — a device that channels the exhaust plume to energise airflow over the diffuser and generate rear downforce at minimal drag cost — provides an additional layer of rear grip precisely where it is needed most.
"The Ferrari car is not only a brilliant chassis, but it's great off the line, which at the moment they still hold that advantage," Palmer said. "However, the power unit on the Ferrari is their weakness, and it's very difficult for a driver to have too much say on that. But Ferrari has a golden chance to win in Monaco because of the way that their car is."
Palmer was also quick to stress that Monaco is not Ferrari's only realistic opportunity. With a number of twistier circuits to come later in the season, the SF-26's strengths should continue to shine — and with both Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton in the mix, the Scuderia carries a double threat.
"But they'll have other good circuits. And again, if Lewis can stay in, even in the position he's in, he can stay close and fight," Palmer added. "So you've got obviously Monaco, but other circuits as well — maybe Zandvoort, maybe Budapest, where Charles was on pole last year as well. Lewis has a great record in Hungary. They can be really competitive."
For Palmer, the broader picture is clear: Ferrari's early-season struggles have been a product of an unfavourable sequence of power-sensitive venues rather than any fundamental weakness in the package.
"I think these early races in the season have probably been a bad mix of races for Ferrari because there've been a lot of power-sensitive circuits, which is not their strong suit. When we go to sort of twistier circuits, then I think we'll see Ferrari with a much better chance."
With everything set up for a fascinating Monaco Grand Prix, Ferrari and Leclerc arrive in the Principality as genuine contenders — and if Palmer's assessment is correct, the wait for that elusive first win of 2026 may be nearly over.
He’s a software engineer with a deep passion for Formula 1 and motorsport. He co-founded Formula Live Pulse to make live telemetry and race insights accessible, visual, and easy to follow.