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Liam Lawson may have started the 2026 Formula 1 season as Racing Bulls' lead points scorer, but his long-term future at the team is anything but secure. According to reports, the New Zealander remains 'under pressure' to retain his seat, with Red Bull's junior pipeline producing a fresh candidate ready to step up.
Lawson, 24, has had a turbulent relationship with Red Bull's programme. Demoted back to Racing Bulls after just two rounds at the senior team at the start of 2025, he spent last season fighting to salvage his F1 career before earning a new contract — only confirmed last December — to continue into 2026. The team's driver shuffle also saw Arvid Lindblad join for his F1 debut after Isack Hadjar was promoted to Red Bull, following Lawson's own demotion.
Racing Bulls team principal Alan Permane has praised Lawson for beginning to "eliminate" the qualifying inconsistencies that plagued his 2025 campaign. The results back that up: Lawson has scored points in three of the first five Grands Prix this year, sitting second in the Red Bull family standings behind only Max Verstappen (43 points), with 16 points to his name ahead of Hadjar (14) and Lindblad (5).
Yet those figures may not be enough to guarantee Lawson's future. The real threat comes not from within the current F1 grid, but from Formula 2 — where Nikola Tsolov is making an emphatic case for promotion.
The 19-year-old Bulgarian is third in the 2026 F2 standings after the opening three rounds, in just his first full season in the championship. Campos gave Tsolov his F2 debut late in 2025, and he wasted little time making his mark — securing a podium finish with P3 in the Abu Dhabi Sprint Race. He then carried that momentum into 2026, claiming his maiden Feature Race victory in Australia and a Sprint Race win in Miami. With that kind of trajectory, reports suggest Tsolov is 'knocking on the door' of an F1 debut as early as 2027, with a Racing Bulls opportunity described as one that 'could arise' depending on results. For more on the wider F2 landscape and the contenders pushing for attention, our 2026 Formula 2 Monaco Grand Prix preview offers a broader picture of how the feeder series is shaping up.
Beyond the Tsolov threat, Lawson also faces a more immediate internal challenge. If Arvid Lindblad begins to outperform the Kiwi during his rookie campaign, Red Bull's hand could be forced sooner rather than later. Jacques Villeneuve has already suggested that Lindblad is applying real pressure on Lawson, pointing to the rookie's P8 finish in the Canada Sprint compared to Lawson's P11 as a telling early indicator.
With Tsolov emerging and Lindblad closing in, Lawson's position at Racing Bulls hinges on maintaining a decisive advantage over his teammate for the remainder of the season. As the 2026 driver contract landscape makes clear, very little is settled on the current grid — and Lawson's situation is one of the most precarious of all.
The 2026 season was always going to be a proving ground for the New Zealander. Right now, it may well be the most important campaign of his career.
He’s a software engineer with a deep passion for Formula 1 and motorsport. He co-founded Formula Live Pulse to make live telemetry and race insights accessible, visual, and easy to follow.