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Mercedes are understood to have recognised that Ferrari could challenge for victory at the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix, despite the Scuderia carrying an engine deficit into Formula 1’s new regulations era.
Ferrari’s internal combustion engine is understood to be at least 2% behind Mercedes’ design. The FIA’s figures also place Mercedes’ ICE at least 2% behind Red Bull’s, while Ferrari’s is at least 4% adrift. Ferrari introduced an upgraded engine in Austria to reduce that gap, but the improvement reportedly amounted to only five horsepower. A further upgrade is already being prepared.
The concern for Mercedes comes from Ferrari’s recent results. Lewis Hamilton claimed his first victory in red at the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix, before Charles Leclerc won the British Grand Prix. Leclerc’s Silverstone success has changed the competitive picture ahead of Spa: Ferrari can no longer be treated as merely an outsider, even at a circuit where power remains important.
For broader context on the weekend, see our 2026 Belgian Grand Prix guide.
According to Gazzetta dello Sport, Ferrari’s aerodynamic concept could provide the SF-26 with a significant advantage through Spa’s middle sector. Its bodywork and floor are said to create a strong platform, while the car’s naturally high downforce levels may help Ferrari avoid the most damaging compromises in set-up.
Energy recovery remains a clear concern. The long runs from La Source to Les Combes and from Stavelot to the Bus Stop Chicane will place substantial demands on the system. However, Ferrari expect the problem to be less severe than it was at Silverstone because the SF-26 should allow Hamilton and Leclerc to run less penalising configurations while retaining the downforce needed elsewhere on the lap.
Ferrari are also reportedly considering a change to the exhaust layout at Spa. The team is believed to be ready to sacrifice its blown exhaust flap, which adds downforce by directing hot gases towards the lower section of the rear wing.
That solution reportedly costs as much as seven horsepower. At Spa, Ferrari believe the extra downforce may be less valuable than the power gained by closing off the lower exhaust exit. If adopted, the change could improve the straight-line speed of both Hamilton and Leclerc—and make Mercedes’ concerns about Ferrari’s victory potential entirely justified.
He’s a software engineer with a deep passion for Formula 1 and motorsport. He co-founded Formula Live Pulse to make live telemetry and race insights accessible, visual, and easy to follow.
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