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Mercedes are understood to have recognised that Ferrari could challenge for victory at the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix, despite the Scuderia carrying an engine deficit into Formula 1ās new regulations era.
Ferrariās internal combustion engine is understood to be at least 2% behind Mercedesā design. The FIAās figures also place Mercedesā ICE at least 2% behind Red Bullās, while Ferrariās is at least 4% adrift. Ferrari introduced an upgraded engine in Austria to reduce that gap, but the improvement reportedly amounted to only five horsepower. A further upgrade is already being prepared.
The concern for Mercedes comes from Ferrariās recent results. Lewis Hamilton claimed his first victory in red at the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix, before Charles Leclerc won the British Grand Prix. Leclercās Silverstone success has changed the competitive picture ahead of Spa: Ferrari can no longer be treated as merely an outsider, even at a circuit where power remains important.
For broader context on the weekend, see our 2026 Belgian Grand Prix guide.
According to Gazzetta dello Sport, Ferrariās aerodynamic concept could provide the SF-26 with a significant advantage through Spaās middle sector. Its bodywork and floor are said to create a strong platform, while the carās naturally high downforce levels may help Ferrari avoid the most damaging compromises in set-up.
Energy recovery remains a clear concern. The long runs from La Source to Les Combes and from Stavelot to the Bus Stop Chicane will place substantial demands on the system. However, Ferrari expect the problem to be less severe than it was at Silverstone because the SF-26 should allow Hamilton and Leclerc to run less penalising configurations while retaining the downforce needed elsewhere on the lap.
Ferrari are also reportedly considering a change to the exhaust layout at Spa. The team is believed to be ready to sacrifice its blown exhaust flap, which adds downforce by directing hot gases towards the lower section of the rear wing.
That solution reportedly costs as much as seven horsepower. At Spa, Ferrari believe the extra downforce may be less valuable than the power gained by closing off the lower exhaust exit. If adopted, the change could improve the straight-line speed of both Hamilton and Leclercāand make Mercedesā concerns about Ferrariās victory potential entirely justified.
Heās a software engineer with a deep passion for Formula 1 and motorsport. He co-founded Formula Live Pulse to make live telemetry and race insights accessible, visual, and easy to follow.