Toyota's shadow looms over Ollie Bearman's Ferrari dreams as Hamilton's exit approaches

Ollie Bearman appeared destined for Ferrari. As a longstanding member of the Scuderia's driver academy since 2022, the British talent had followed a well-trodden path toward a seat at Maranello. His impressive rookie campaign in 2025—where he outscored veteran teammate Esteban Ocon with 41 points to 38—only strengthened the narrative that he represented the obvious successor to Lewis Hamilton. Yet emerging complications threaten to derail a carefully constructed career trajectory that once seemed inevitable.

The reality is far more complex. While Hamilton's disappointing inaugural Ferrari season has sparked speculation about his future beyond 2026, and multiple paddock figures have publicly endorsed Bearman as his replacement, an unexpected obstacle has emerged: Haas' deepening relationship with manufacturer Toyota.

The Toyota complication

The concern is straightforward but potentially devastating for Bearman's aspirations. As Haas strengthens its partnership with Toyota, the American squad's traditional relationship with Ferrari—which has anchored both the team and Bearman's pathway—faces genuine jeopardy.

Former 1997 world champion Jacques Villeneuve articulated the problem clearly: "Bearman is the Ferrari driver. Just waiting for a seat to become available there. Although the team will not really be a Ferrari team anymore because Toyota is getting more and more involved in the team so at some point this will stop." The implication cuts to the heart of Bearman's predicament. If Haas moves away from the Ferrari umbrella, the conduit that has sustained his academy position and development pathway could vanish entirely.

The Hamilton narrative

Despite these complications, the circumstances surrounding Hamilton's future create obvious opportunities. The seven-time world champion's 2025 campaign at Ferrari fell substantially short of expectations, raising legitimate questions about whether the 2026 season might represent his final year with the Scuderia. Former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner has been unequivocal in his assessment: "I think for him the door should be open to Ferrari for '27, because if Lewis hasn't got the success he needs to have, I don't think that he continues, and then there is the obvious candidate there for Ferrari."

Bearman himself has expressed readiness for the challenge. When asked about his preparedness for a Ferrari promotion, he responded: "Well, you know, I'm in F1 and you have to back yourself. So yes, I believe I'm ready, but I have to continue to prove that." His Mexico City performance—where he executed a calculated defense against Max Verstappen to secure fourth place—demonstrated the composure and consistency that Ferrari scouts value.

The academy advantage under threat

What distinguishes Bearman from other rising talents is his established integration within Ferrari's ecosystem. Unlike drivers who might require extensive adaptation, Bearman represents continuity—a prospect Ferrari would ordinarily favor. His academy membership, combined with his demonstrated growth trajectory, should theoretically position him as the natural evolution of the driver market.

However, the Toyota-Haas synergy threatens to eliminate precisely this advantage. If Ferrari no longer views Haas as a development feeder team, Bearman loses his most significant pathway to the Scuderia. Alternative routes exist, but none offer the seamless transition that his current position affords.

What lies ahead

Bearman remains at Haas for the 2026 season, continuing alongside Ocon. The coming year will prove critical—not merely for his performance metrics, but for the broader realignment of manufacturer relationships within Formula 1. Should Haas accelerate its Toyota integration, Ferrari may be forced to explore alternative successors, leaving Bearman's Ferrari dream in jeopardy despite his impressive credentials and the apparent departure of Hamilton.

The cruel irony is evident: Bearman has positioned himself perfectly to inherit Hamilton's seat, yet external forces beyond his control may render that opportunity unreachable.