The 5 drivers most likely to win the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix according to betting markets

Formula 1 heads to Baku with Kimi Antonelli installed as the clear favourite for victory, but the Azerbaijan Grand Prix has rarely been a race that follows the obvious script.

Yet Baku presents a very different test.

As detailed in our 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix tyre preview, degradation should be low enough to make a one-stop strategy the baseline. That places even greater emphasis on track position, timing and reacting correctly to any race interruption.

So, what do the early betting markets tell us about the five drivers considered most likely to win in Baku?

Kimi Antonelli - Mercedes

Odds: 11/10 (2.10, +110)

It is difficult to look beyond Antonelli when assessing the form book.

The Mercedes driver has won eight of the opening 14 Grands Prix of 2026, including the last two races, and has built a commanding championship advantage in only his second Formula 1 season.

His victory in Madrid required some good fortune when the Virtual Safety Car fell perfectly for Mercedes, something Antonelli himself acknowledged afterwards. But reducing the result to luck would ignore the preparation behind it.

Mercedes had anticipated the possibility of a neutralisation and used a carefully prepared radio procedure that allowed Antonelli to react immediately. We analysed exactly how Mercedes' coded radio messages helped turn the Madrid VSC into a race-winning opportunity.

Baku also holds positive memories for the Italian.

Antonelli finished fourth here as a rookie in 2025, at a point in his career when podium appearances were still rare. Twelve months later, both he and Mercedes arrive in a very different position.

The W17 has proven competitive across a wide range of circuit types, which goes some way towards explaining why bookmakers have Antonelli at around 11/10 for another victory.

Three consecutive wins would strengthen an already imposing championship position.

Lando Norris - McLaren

Odds: 7/2 (4.50, +350)

The Spanish Grand Prix result did not reflect Lando Norris' underlying pace.

The reigning World Champion took pole at MADRING and controlled the opening phase of the race before unfortunate VSC timing handed Antonelli an enormous strategic advantage.

That performance has kept Norris firmly in the market for Baku, where he is priced as the second favourite at approximately 7/2.

His historical record in Azerbaijan is less convincing.

Across his last five Baku appearances, Norris has finished fifth, ninth, ninth, fourth and seventh. Last year's seventh place was also his worst finish in a race he completed during his championship-winning campaign.

There are, however, reasons to expect more from McLaren this time.

The team is bringing a Baku-specific aerodynamic update for the MCL40, targeting one of the car's most important weaknesses around this circuit: balancing slow-corner performance against the low drag required for Baku's enormous straights.

McLaren also knows this circuit can suit its package. Oscar Piastri won here in 2024, proving that Baku is far from incompatible with the team's recent cars.

If the new package delivers the expected gain in straight-line efficiency, Norris could be considerably more competitive than his previous Baku results suggest.

George Russell - Mercedes

Odds: 11/2 (6.50, +550)

If circuit history carries any weight this weekend, George Russell deserves serious attention.

The Mercedes driver has never won in Azerbaijan, but he has reached the podium in three of his last four visits, finishing third in 2022, third again in 2024 and second behind Max Verstappen last season.

Few current drivers have been as consistently effective around Baku.

Russell arrives third in the early victory market at roughly 11/2, despite losing considerable ground to Antonelli in the championship during the recent European rounds.

Madrid was an especially frustrating weekend. Russell qualified sixth and finished fifth while Antonelli collected another victory.

There had also been speculation that Baku could be the venue where Russell finally takes a power-unit grid penalty. Mercedes now appears set to delay that change until later in the season, potentially when its upgraded specification is available.

That leaves Russell free to attack this weekend without an automatic grid drop.

And qualifying position may be particularly important.

Although Baku has produced winners from further back, the long one-stop window predicted by Pirelli means there may be fewer conventional strategic opportunities to overturn track position if the race remains green.

Russell's combination of strong historical results and Mercedes' current pace therefore makes him one of the most credible alternatives to Antonelli.

Max Verstappen - Red Bull

Odds: 13/2 (7.50, +650)

Max Verstappen may sit only sixth in the Drivers' Championship, but dismissing him at Baku would be difficult.

The Red Bull driver has won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix twice, in 2022 and 2025, and arrives this year after reaching the podium in four of the previous five races.

His victory last season was particularly emphatic.

Verstappen started from pole and controlled the Grand Prix, becoming the first polesitter since Valtteri Bottas in 2019 to convert first on the grid into victory in Azerbaijan.

The concern is the RB22.

Red Bull continues to investigate the aerodynamic performance deterioration that has affected the car during longer runs, and recent developments have improved rather than eliminated its underlying inconsistency.

Baku could nevertheless mask some of those weaknesses.

Its limited number of sustained high-speed corners reduces the importance of maximum downforce, while aerodynamic efficiency and traction carry greater weight. Red Bull also has extensive experience of finding the right compromise here, having won five races at the venue.

The 2026 regulations add another challenge. Baku's extreme full-throttle section places huge demands on electrical deployment, making energy management one of the weekend's central technical questions.

If Red Bull can keep Verstappen competitive through the first two sectors without sacrificing too much speed down the straight, his 13/2 price could quickly shorten once practice begins.

Lewis Hamilton - Ferrari

Odds: 8/1 (9.00, +800)

Lewis Hamilton completes the top five at approximately 8/1, making Ferrari the fourth different constructor represented among the leading contenders.

The seven-time World Champion already knows what it takes to win in Baku.

Hamilton took victory here with Mercedes in 2018, although his more recent record has been less impressive. He has not stood on the Azerbaijan podium since 2019 and finished outside the leading group in each of his last two visits.

His recent 2026 form is also difficult to ignore.

Hamilton has gone five consecutive races without a podium, while Ferrari has struggled to consistently match Mercedes at the front despite showing flashes of considerable performance.

Baku could provide an opportunity to reverse that trend.

The circuit has historically been one of Ferrari's strongest qualifying venues, most notably through Charles Leclerc's run of four consecutive pole positions between 2021 and 2024.

The bigger question is whether Ferrari can convert one-lap speed into sustainable race pace.

With low tyre degradation expected, there may be fewer opportunities to use an offset strategy to recover from a poor grid position. Hamilton therefore needs Ferrari to be competitive from qualifying onwards if he is to challenge for his second Azerbaijan Grand Prix victory.

What the markets tell us before practice

The early order paints a fairly clear picture:

1. Kimi Antonelli - 11/10 (2.10, +110)
2. Lando Norris - 7/2 (4.50, +350)
3. George Russell - 11/2 (6.50, +550)
4. Max Verstappen - 13/2 (7.50, +650)
5. Lewis Hamilton - 8/1 (9.00, +800)

Antonelli's position at the top is understandable. He has the championship's fastest combination of recent results and a Mercedes that has worked on virtually every type of circuit.

But Baku tends to punish certainty.

Three different drivers have won the last three Azerbaijan Grands Prix: Sergio Perez in 2023, Oscar Piastri in 2024 and Verstappen in 2025.

There is also the unique challenge of the 2026 cars. As explained in our full Azerbaijan Grand Prix schedule and circuit guide, this year's race takes place on Saturday, with practice beginning on Thursday and qualifying on Friday.

Once the cars run, the picture could change quickly.

McLaren has upgrades. Verstappen has a formidable record here. Russell repeatedly finds the Baku podium. Hamilton is a previous winner.

Antonelli may be the market favourite, but Baku remains one of Formula 1's least reliable places to assume the favourite will win.

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