Norris and Stella back Ferrari as Monaco favourites, but not without a fight

Ferrari the team to beat on the streets of Monte Carlo

Lando Norris and McLaren team principal Andrea Stella have both pointed to Ferrari as the car to beat at this weekend's Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix — a verdict grounded in cold, hard data rather than paddock speculation.

The Ferrari SF-26 has continued a long-running trait of Maranello's F1 cars by excelling in low-speed corners and on traction — qualities that carry enormous value around the tight, unforgiving streets of Monte Carlo. Crucially, Ferrari's known deficit to the Mercedes-powered cars in outright straight-line speed is rendered far less damaging at a circuit where long straights are virtually absent.

Stella endorses Norris's verdict — with GPS data to back it up

When presented with Norris's comments, Stella offered a technical endorsement that went beyond opinion. Referencing GPS speed overlays from recent races, the McLaren team principal pointed to Ferrari's strength not just in pure low-speed sections, but also in kerbing-heavy environments — a defining characteristic of the Monaco layout.

"When we look at the overlay based on the GPS speed, we can see that Ferrari is definitely a competitive chassis in the corners, like in the first sector," Stella explained. "And it's not only a low-speed sector, but it's also a sector with kerbing. And normally these features tend to be rewarded on a track like Monaco. In addition to that, we see, for instance in Canada, that Ferrari lose time in the straights, but you don't have much of that in Monaco. So, I think Lando is pretty right in seeing Ferrari possibly as the favourite car for pole in Monaco."

The assessment is consistent with Jolyon Palmer's view that Ferrari have a 'golden chance' to win the Monaco GP with Charles Leclerc as their spearhead, adding further weight to the Maranello outfit's billing as the headline act on the Riviera.

McLaren's honest self-assessment

For his own team, Stella was candid. The upgraded MCL40 is best suited to low-speed corners at its current stage of development, with Ferrari and Mercedes holding an edge in medium and high-speed sections. That gives McLaren a real, if not guaranteed, foothold at Monaco.

"This should set us in a good position for Monaco. At the same time, unlike how it looks, in Monaco there are a few medium and high-speed corners. Casino corner is more than 150 kph, Tabac is 170-180, the swimming pool is more than 200. So actually, medium and high-speed performance is important in Monaco," Stella noted. "I definitely see Ferrari probably as the favourite, but McLaren can be competitive and we will try and repeat the achievement last year in Monaco."

With Norris a winner in Monaco last season and the MCL40 showing signs of competitiveness at low-speed venues, McLaren's challenge may be more meaningful than their own understated words suggest. Ferrari, however, go into the weekend carrying the weight of expectation — and the data to justify it.