How Carlos Sainz nearly came back to Red Bull before joining Ferrari

When Daniel Ricciardo announced his shock departure from Red Bull at the end of the 2018 season, the Milton Keynes outfit faced a critical decision that would shape the trajectory of multiple careers in Formula 1. The vacant seat alongside Max Verstappen represented one of motorsport's most coveted positions, yet the driver selection process revealed the razor-thin margins that separate championship contenders from those left searching for competitive machinery.

The 2019 Red Bull promotion: Gasly vs. Sainz

Speaking to F1.com, Gasly reflected on the pivotal moment when Helmut Marko made the decisive call. "Right after Budapest, Daniel announced he was leaving. I remember arriving in Greece for my holiday, and it was like, 'Whoa, Daniel is going,'" Gasly recalled. "Red Bull had Carlos Sainz as an option and they had me. It's between Sainz and myself. The phone rang and Helmut told me 'Okay, you're a Red Bull Racing driver at the start of next year' – this was six months into my first [full] season in F1."

Why Gasly won the battle

Gasly's immediate impact at Toro Rosso provided Red Bull with compelling evidence that he was ready for the challenge. His strong early performances contrasted sharply with Sainz's departure from the Red Bull fold, as Sainz left for Renault towards the end of the 2017 season, signaling his willingness to explore opportunities outside Red Bull's ecosystem.

The momentum of Gasly's breakthrough season, combined with his status as a relatively fresh prospect within Red Bull's development program, ultimately convinced Marko and the senior management that the French driver represented the optimal choice for the demanding role alongside Verstappen.

The collapse of Gasly's Red Bull dream

What Red Bull failed to anticipate was how spectacularly Gasly's tenure would deteriorate. Promoted to one of Formula 1's most prestigious seats, Gasly was brutally demoted back down to Toro Rosso halfway through the 2019 season, a humbling setback that triggered a concerning pattern for the team's second-seat driver.

This demotion initiated what would become an ongoing crisis for Red Bull's seat alongside Verstappen. Alex Albon, Sergio Perez, Liam Lawson, and Yuki Tsunoda have all subsequently struggled to establish themselves in the role, with Isack Hadjar becoming the latest driver to experience the challenging dynamics of Red Bull's demanding second position.

Sainz's second opportunity: another near-miss

Remarkably, Sainz's path to Red Bull wasn't definitively closed in 2019. When Sainz was displaced from Ferrari following Lewis Hamilton's arrival at the Scuderia, he was once again tipped for a Red Bull drive. However, the team opted to retain Sergio Perez for the remainder of the 2024 season, denying Sainz what would have been a prestigious return to the Red Bull family.

Unable to secure a drive at a front-running team, Sainz eventually joined Williams, where he demonstrated his exceptional racecraft by securing two podium finishes. These performances underscored why Sainz remains one of the most sought-after drivers on the current grid, despite the missed opportunities at Red Bull.

The road not taken

In retrospect, the 2019 promotion decision represents a fascinating fork in the road for both drivers. Had Gasly maintained his Red Bull seat and performed to expectations, the trajectory of modern Formula 1 might have unfolded entirely differently. Conversely, Sainz's journey—while lacking the prestige of a Red Bull promotion—has proven more stable and arguably more fulfilling, culminating in his competitive performances at Williams.

Gasly's candid revelation about this pivotal moment provides unique insight into how marginal gains in performance during critical junctures can fundamentally alter a driver's career path. The decision between two talented drivers from the same junior ecosystem ultimately hinged on timing, recent form, and Red Bull's assessment of their readiness for the sport's most demanding environment.