How Alex Dunne could still win the 2026 Formula 2 title

Alex Dunne remains in the 2026 Formula 2 title fight, but his route to the championship depends on how many rounds are ultimately held. After Baku, he is third on 189 points, 18 behind leader Rafael Câmara and 11 behind Nikola Tsolov. The planned calendar still lists Qatar and Abu Dhabi; neither cancellation nor an F2 finale at Imola has been confirmed.

The planned Qatar and Abu Dhabi finish

Across two rounds, that makes 78 points theoretically available to a single driver. On the current standings, Dunne would need to outscore Câmara by at least 19 points across the two weekends to finish ahead of him on points. An 18-point swing would leave them level, making the championship’s countback rules decisive rather than giving Dunne an outright points lead.

That is a demanding but open target. It does not require Dunne to take every available point, but it does mean that simply matching Câmara’s results cannot close the gap. A victory or podium-level result becomes more valuable when the leader has a less productive weekend; avoiding a low score or penalty is equally important because the remaining opportunities are limited. Tsolov is not just another name in the standings: he sits seven points behind Câmara, while Dunne is 11 behind Tsolov. Dunne therefore has a two-front title fight—he needs to outscore Tsolov by at least 12 points to pass him, and Câmara by at least 19 to take the outright points lead. A strong weekend against one rival will not be enough if the other scores more heavily.

The two-round scenario therefore gives Dunne room to recover across different weekends. A difficult result in Qatar would not automatically end his chances if he could respond in Abu Dhabi, and a strong first round could put pressure on both rivals. But the points available are not reserved for the leading trio. Dunne would need to monitor the wider standings and ensure that another contender does not make a larger late-season gain.

Baku showed how quickly the margins can move

Dunne’s position after Baku reflects both his potential and the cost of a small execution error. He won the first Feature Race, then crossed the line first in the second Feature Race as well. A five-second penalty for crossing the white line at pit entry dropped him to third in the final classification, promoting Câmara to victory. Câmara’s inherited Baku win left him with 207 points, seven clear of Tsolov on 200, while Dunne had 189.

The result illustrates why the title calculation is not just about peak pace. Dunne demonstrated that he could win, but the penalty changed the points outcome and widened the gap to the leader. With 78 points available in the planned final two rounds, the deficit remains recoverable; another lost opportunity of similar significance would make the task harder. Clean execution, particularly when points are awarded across multiple sessions and races, will be central to any late charge.

Baku’s unusually expanded schedule also provides a useful reference for a different, strictly hypothetical scenario. The round included two qualifying sessions and two Feature Races alongside the Sprint, rather than the standard one-Sprint, one-Feature format. That format was announced for Baku as a specific adjustment, not as confirmation of a wider change to the calendar. The Baku format should therefore be treated as a model for a possible calculation only.

If the finale were a Baku-style Imola round

There is the possibility that both Qatar and Abu Dhabi are cancelled and that F2 stages its finale at Imola using the same three-race format as Baku: one Sprint and two Feature Races. Under this assumption, a driver’s maximum weekend haul would be 67 points. The total comprises 10 for a Sprint win, 25 for each Feature Race win, two pole points for each Feature Race grid and one fastest-lap point in each of the three races. Reaching 67 would require Dunne to take both Feature poles, win all three races and set the fastest lap in each while remaining eligible for those points.

Starting 18 points behind Câmara, Dunne would need to outscore him by at least 19 points at such a finale to finish ahead on points. An 18-point swing would create a tie, so countback would matter. The same principle applies to Tsolov and any other driver still mathematically capable of taking the title: beating Câmara alone would not be enough if another rival scored more strongly.

The 67-point ceiling makes a comeback possible in theory, but it is not a likely or assured outcome simply because the arithmetic permits it. Dunne would need a very high-scoring weekend, and the title would also depend on how his rivals performed. Multiple wins and strong results across the races could create the required swing, particularly if the leading drivers finished lower down, but no particular finishing combination is guaranteed by the points totals.

Most importantly, Imola has not been confirmed as an F2 venue. The official calendar still lists Qatar and Abu Dhabi, while contemporaneous reporting says F2 is not currently expected to race at Imola even if F1 were to move its finale there. Imola’s emergence as an F1 contingency option does not establish that the feeder series would follow. Any replacement F2 event, venue and sporting format would need official confirmation.

A live chance, shaped by the calendar

Dunne’s championship route is mathematically open under both scenarios, but the scale of the task changes sharply. If Qatar and Abu Dhabi proceed as scheduled, he has two standard weekends and 78 maximum points in which to overturn an 18-point deficit to Câmara. If both rounds were cancelled and replaced by the hypothetical Baku-style Imola finale, he would have one weekend and a maximum of 67 points, with an outright lead over Câmara requiring a 19-point swing.

Neither calculation makes the title inevitable, and neither settles the calendar question. Dunne must maximise his own points, avoid costly errors and outscore Tsolov as well as Câmara, while the championship’s other live contenders remain relevant. Until officials confirm any change, Qatar and Abu Dhabi remain the planned finish; Imola is only a scenario for analysis.