2026 Mexico City GP Odds: Verstappen leads Antonelli

Max Verstappen heads the betting market for the 2026 Mexico City Grand Prix, narrowly ahead of Kimi Antonelli, despite the Mercedes driver’s commanding victory in Austin.

The prices published in Formula 1’s 27 October preview, supplied by Spotlight Sports Group, place the Red Bull driver at 6/4, with Antonelli at 7/4. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton follow, ahead of George Russell.

That order sets up the central question for Mexico: can Red Bull turn its recent consistency into another victory, or will Antonelli carry his Austin advantage into the next weekend?

Mexico City Grand Prix winner odds

The five leading drivers in the published market are:

• Max Verstappen — Red Bull: 6/4, or 2.50 in decimal odds.
• Kimi Antonelli — Mercedes: 7/4, or 2.75.
• Charles Leclerc — Ferrari: 17/2, or 9.50.
• Lewis Hamilton — Ferrari: 9/1, or 10.00.
• George Russell — Mercedes: 12/1, or 13.00.

Lando Norris sits outside that group at 14/1, or 15.00.

These are the prices quoted on 27 October, rather than a live odds feed. The ranking reflects market expectations before practice and does not establish the competitive order on track.

Verstappen’s consistency meets Antonelli’s stronger Austin result

There is a credible recent-form argument for Verstappen. His third place in Austin extended his run to six consecutive podium finishes, keeping Red Bull in contention even through a difficult weekend.

But the result also exposed the limits of that argument. Antonelli won from pole, while Verstappen finished 17.485 seconds behind after a race complicated by tyre strategy and technical concerns.

As explored in our report on Verstappen’s recurring start and radio problems, Red Bull has execution issues to address alongside its search for pace. Being the market favourite does not remove those weaknesses.

Antonelli arrives with the clearest evidence from the previous race. His ninth victory of the season in Austin came through a controlled one-stop strategy, and he beat Leclerc by 13.078 seconds.

That makes the narrow gap between the two favourites understandable. Verstappen offers sustained podium form; Antonelli brings the most recent demonstration of race-winning speed.

Ferrari needs to turn podium pace into a winning challenge

Leclerc is the closest challenger to the leading pair in the market after finishing second in Austin. He recovered from fourth on the grid to beat Verstappen, but could not put Antonelli under sustained pressure.

His prospects therefore depend on Ferrari closing the gap at the front, rather than simply repeating its finishing position from Texas.

Hamilton finished fourth, giving Ferrari two cars ahead of both McLarens. His slightly longer odds place him close to Leclerc in market terms, although that is no guarantee their pace will be similarly matched in Mexico.

Russell faces a recovery weekend

Russell’s fifth place in the betting contrasts sharply with his team-mate’s position near the top.

He finished eighth in Austin after struggling for pace and serving a five-second penalty. With Antonelli winning in the same machinery, Mercedes’ potential is evident; Russell’s immediate task is to understand why he could not access it.

Practice and qualifying will provide a more useful test of these prices. Until then, the market presents Verstappen and Antonelli as the leading pair, with Ferrari requiring a step forward and Russell seeking a return to competitive form.