United States Grand Prix · Analysis
Why Mercedes no longer has a clear edge in 2026 F1
Mercedes still leads both championships, but pole-position figures and recent wins show Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull have narrowed the gap.
Mercedes opened the 2026 season with six consecutive grand prix victories. That early run established a clear lead, but the numbers since then point to a much tighter contest as the teams head to the United States GP.
The Silver Arrows remain ahead in both championships, and Kimi Antonelli is within reach of a maiden world title in Austin. Yet the team’s rivals have shared the wins: Ferrari triumphed in Austria and Great Britain, McLaren won in Hungary and the Netherlands, and Red Bull took the most recent victories in Malaysia and Singapore.
Pole gaps show how the field has tightened
Mercedes was level with pole position on average from Australia through Japan, while McLaren was 0.567 seconds back, Ferrari 0.596 seconds and Red Bull 0.974 seconds. The figures for Miami to Belgium still put Mercedes at the front, but Ferrari had closed to 0.267 seconds, with Red Bull at 0.313 and McLaren at 0.432.
Across Hungary to Singapore, Mercedes’ average deficit was 0.162 seconds. Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull were all within 0.339 seconds. Remove Baku, identified as an outlier, and Ferrari led the comparison at 0.184 seconds behind pole, just ahead of Mercedes at 0.189, McLaren at 0.191 and Red Bull at 0.233.
Deputy team principal Bradley Lord said rival upgrades had changed the picture. Ferrari and Red Bull brought developments before or around Baku, while Mercedes introduced its update in Malaysia. He acknowledged that the latest races had shown both rivals to be more competitive than earlier in the season. The team’s own W17 update has delivered less relative progress than hoped.
That shift is reflected in the victories: Mercedes has 11, while Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull have two each. It is only the second time since 1990 that four teams have taken multiple wins in a season, after the same four outfits did so in 2024. Antonelli has also acknowledged Mercedes is no longer the fastest.
Mercedes expects a four-team fight in Austin
Deputy technical director Simone Resta said the strongest team has varied from weekend to weekend. He expects Red Bull to contend, described Ferrari as competitive across conditions and warned that McLaren has shown it can be the strongest team by a margin.
Mercedes is targeting a return to winning form, but the recent run has been complicated by setbacks: Antonelli hit the wall in Baku qualifying, while George Russell suffered a power-unit failure in Malaysia. Russell then started Singapore from the back after exceeding his quota and crashed out of the sprint while leading.
Ferrari’s planned new floor for the United States GP adds another development to watch. Mercedes still has the championship lead, but its pole figures underline why Austin offers no guarantee of a Silver Arrows advantage.