2026 São Paulo GP weather: rain risk and cooler race Day

Rain remains a factor in the 2026 São Paulo Grand Prix forecast, but the outlook does not support treating the entire Interlagos weekend as a guaranteed washout. Forecasts checked on 4 November point to a warmer Saturday, a risk of thunderstorms and a cooler, unsettled Sunday.

The important uncertainty is when the rain arrives. Qualifying starts at 15:00 local time on Saturday 7 November, with Sunday’s race beginning at 14:00. A wet morning or evening does not necessarily mean a wet session.

Friday: practice has a better chance of staying dry

The Met Office forecast for Interlagos, updated at 06:25 UTC on 4 November, places Friday’s rain mainly in the early hours, followed by cloud and some afternoon brighter spells.

Its daytime maximum is around 24°C, with precipitation probabilities below 5% at the hourly points around both practice sessions. FP1 runs from 12:30 to 13:30 BRT and FP2 from 16:00 to 17:00.

That provides a more favourable outlook for track running than a daily rain symbol alone might suggest. It remains a forecast rather than a guarantee of dry practice.

Saturday: thunderstorms are possible, but timing varies

Saturday is warmer, with the Met Office forecasting a daytime high near 29°C and meteoblue’s Interlagos outlook near 30°C. Meteoblue includes thunderstorms and local showers in its daily forecast.

However, the Met Office hourly outlook checked for this article gives a 40% precipitation probability at 15:00, when qualifying is scheduled to begin, after 60% readings at 13:00 and 14:00. Its probability of precipitation is not a probability of a thunderstorm.

The two forecasts support preparing for changeable conditions. They do not establish that a storm will hit the circuit during qualifying, nor that the session will be interrupted.

If showers do overlap with running, teams may have to balance getting a lap recorded early against waiting for improving grip. A change in rain intensity could make the timing of a run as important as the underlying pace.

Sunday: cooler conditions and a continuing rain risk

The Met Office forecasts light rain on Sunday, with around 17°C and a 60% precipitation probability at the scheduled 14:00 race start.

Meteoblue also shows a wet Sunday, although its forecast daytime maximum is higher, around 21°C. Those are different providers’ predictions, rather than a single agreed temperature forecast.

Both indicate a cooler day than Saturday. The exact rainfall intensity, duration and overlap with the 71-lap Grand Prix remain uncertain.

A cooler race can alter tyre warm-up even if conditions improve. If the track dries, choosing when to switch to slicks would depend on the grip available across the lap, not simply whether the rain has stopped.

Our São Paulo Grand Prix preview examines the circuit and strategic choices that those conditions could influence.

Why the rain percentages should stay attached to their sources

Williams’ weekend forecast published on 3 November lists precipitation chances of 10% for Friday, 70% for Saturday and 35% for Sunday.

Those day-level figures are not directly interchangeable with the Met Office’s hourly probabilities. Different forecast locations, models, update times and forecast periods can produce different numbers.

A 60% probability also does not mean it will rain for 60% of the race or across 60% of the circuit. It should not be converted into a prediction of a wet start, a red flag or a particular tyre strategy.

The clearest reading of the available forecasts is that Friday’s practice window looks relatively favourable, Saturday carries a shower and thunderstorm risk, and Sunday is expected to be cooler with rain still possible.

All session times here are Brasília Time, BRT, UTC−3. The full São Paulo weekend schedule includes the three practice sessions, qualifying and Sunday’s race; there is no F1 Sprint this weekend.

Forecast snapshot: 4 November 2026. Rain timing and probabilities should be checked again closer to each session, particularly before treating any published percentage as a race-day expectation.