Mercedes and Ferrari leave Monza locked together after confusing FP2 long runs

Mercedes answers Ferrari’s early pace

Charles Leclerc gave Ferrari the early advantage in FP1, but Mercedes responded in the more representative second session, with George Russell setting the fastest lap. The real intrigue, however, came during the long runs that followed.

Those runs are usually the clearest indication of potential race pace, yet Friday’s data offered no decisive answer. Once adjusted for stint length and tyre compound, Ferrari and Mercedes were virtually inseparable. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton were exactly level with the benchmark, while Russell was only 0.02 seconds per lap slower. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli was just 0.04 seconds off the pace.

The closeness reinforces the picture outlined in our Friday recap from Monza: the competitive order is tight, and qualifying may turn on the smallest execution details.

Energy management splits the leading teams

Monza’s long straights and limited number of corners place a premium on how performance is distributed around the lap. The data suggests Mercedes is finding more time early, while Ferrari recovers ground in the final sector.

Russell’s 27.044-second first sector was second only to Pierre Gasly’s 27.039s. Ferrari was between 0.13 and 0.22s slower there, with Hamilton recording 27.174s and Leclerc 27.259s. Mercedes also led the second sector, posting 27.784s compared with Ferrari’s 27.874s.

The final sector reversed the trend. Leclerc’s 27.546s was approximately two tenths faster than Russell’s 27.721s. That difference in approach makes it impossible to identify a clear favourite for either pole or Sunday’s race. With the gaps so narrow, a minor error could cost several places at the front.

McLaren and Red Bull lose ground

McLaren was around four tenths off the single-lap pace, although Lando Norris was only 0.19s per lap away on long runs. The MCL40 appeared less comfortable at Monza than at the tighter circuits in Budapest and Zandvoort, losing most heavily in the final sector.

Red Bull was more concerning. Its qualifying simulation deficit stood at 0.818s, while its long-run gap was 0.22s. The RB22 lost too much time through the corners in the first two sectors to recover the deficit on the straights, leaving the team fourth at best.

Midfield order shifts

Racing Bulls remained the apparent midfield leader, while Audi slipped back. Nico Hulkenberg was 1.42s per lap off the benchmark on a representative long run, with Audi also behind Alpine, Williams and Haas. Gabriel Bortoleto completed only three laps before a technical issue ended his running.

Aston Martin also struggled: Fernando Alonso had no meaningful long run, while Lance Stroll was 3.94s per lap slower than the benchmark. Cadillac was again ahead of the team.

With no significant degradation on any of the three compounds, Friday’s data points towards a one-stop strategy for Sunday, regardless of the tyre combination.