The 5 drivers most likely to win the 2026 Singapore Grand Prix

The Singapore Grand Prix takes place on October 9–11, with the race scheduled for Sunday, October 11. No sessions or results have taken place yet, so the leading Singapore GP favourites remain a pre-weekend assessment—not a guarantee of who will win at Marina Bay.

Who are the favourites to win the Singapore Grand Prix?

1. Kimi Antonelli

Kimi Antonelli arrives as the championship leader on 320 points. He finished runner-up in Malaysia, adding another strong result to a season in which Mercedes’ pace has kept him at the front of the title fight.

That makes Antonelli the leading contender on the evidence available before the weekend. The question is whether he and Mercedes can convert their season-long speed into the grip and confidence needed around Marina Bay. On a street circuit where qualifying position can shape a driver’s options, overall pace alone will not settle the matter. The Sprint timetable leaves little room to work through setup changes, making a clean start to the weekend especially important.

2. Max Verstappen

Max Verstappen won the latest race in Malaysia, giving him clear recent momentum heading to Singapore. That victory puts him firmly among the names to consider, even though his place in the standings is level on 188 points with Lando Norris.

There is a notable caveat: Verstappen has never won at Marina Bay, according to Formula 1’s Singapore facts and statistics. His Malaysia form makes him a serious threat, but the record means his case is not built on past success at this venue. He will need to show that recent pace can translate to this different kind of circuit.

3. George Russell

George Russell has a strong Singapore-specific argument: he won the 2025 Singapore GP from pole. He is also second in the championship, on 236 points, giving him a substantial points-based case alongside that recent venue success. The 2025 race report and results confirm his victory.

The complication is Mercedes’ challenging Malaysia weekend: following a power-unit failure there, Russell is set to receive a 10-place grid penalty in Singapore when Mercedes fits a replacement unit. The expected penalty is a major setback at Marina Bay, where overtaking can be difficult. His Marina Bay record gives him a credible route to contention, but Mercedes will need to adapt if he is to make the most of it.

4. Lewis Hamilton

Lewis Hamilton is third in the standings with 214 points and finished third in Malaysia. That latest podium is evidence of current competitiveness, while his Singapore experience and Ferrari’s pace strengthen his case for a place among the favourites.

The tight circuit rewards a driver who can manage the demands of a long, physical race and make qualifying count. Hamilton’s experience is relevant in that setting, but it cannot remove the uncertainty of a Sprint weekend with limited preparation. His Malaysia result makes him a credible contender; what he and Ferrari find in practice will help determine how strong that position is.

5. Charles Leclerc

Charles Leclerc is fourth in the standings on 191 points and finished fourth in Malaysia. Ferrari’s competitive pace gives him a platform, while his qualifying potential and ability to capitalise on track position make him a credible outsider.

That starting position could be especially valuable at a tight street circuit, where opportunities to pass may be limited. But Leclerc’s challenge, like the other contenders’, is to turn a strong qualifying effort into a complete race. Tyre management and the timing of strategic decisions could determine whether he can stay in the fight.

What could decide the 2026 Singapore GP?

The Sprint format leaves teams with limited practice to learn the circuit and refine their setups. That puts a premium on getting the balance right early and executing in qualifying, when a strong grid position can make a major difference. The weekend schedule is available in F1LivePulse’s Singapore tyre strategy preview, which also discusses the first Singapore Sprint and the preparation challenge.

Safety-car periods and strategy can also reshape a race on a tight street circuit. Teams will need to weigh their options as the race develops, while drivers manage their tyres through the physical demands of Marina Bay. The relative importance of those factors will only become clearer once the cars are on track.

Singapore Grand Prix winner prediction

Antonelli leads this shortlist on championship position and Mercedes’ season-long pace. Verstappen’s Malaysia win and Russell’s previous Singapore victory make them immediate threats, with Hamilton and Leclerc supported by recent results and Ferrari competitiveness. Norris is a close alternative: he has 188 points and finished on the podium at Singapore in 2025.

These are contenders, not certainties. Qualifying, setup, tyre management and the strategic turns of a street-circuit race could all shift the balance once the weekend begins.