When can Mercedes clinch the 2026 F1 championships?

Mercedes is closing in on a first Formula 1 double championship since 2020, but its constructors’ title is unlikely to be settled at the next round in Austin. With six races left, the team leads Ferrari by 134 points, while four teams remain mathematically in contention for the teams’ crown.

Kimi Antonelli and George Russell head the drivers’ standings, with Antonelli 102 points clear. The young Italian could secure his first drivers’ title as early as Austin, although Mexico is considered the more likely opportunity. For more on Antonelli’s title prospects, read our look at his possible route to the championship.

Austin will narrow the field, but cannot decide the teams’ title

Mercedes has scored 578 points, ahead of Ferrari on 444. McLaren is third on 339, with Red Bull fourth on 332; fifth-placed Racing Bulls is already 478 points behind the leaders. There are 258 points still available across the remaining races, assuming Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead.

After the United States Grand Prix, 215 points will remain. McLaren and Red Bull are likely to be eliminated from the title fight, as they would need to be within 214 points of Mercedes after Austin. Even if either team closed the gap to 215, Mercedes’ nine-win advantage over both would keep it ahead on countback.

Ferrari, however, will remain within 214 points regardless of what happens in Texas, so the championship cannot be decided there. Mercedes’ early-season winning run built a substantial cushion, although rivals have since reduced the performance gap. Antonelli has acknowledged that McLaren is now faster.

Mexico is possible, but Brazil looks more likely

A title celebration in Mexico City would require a particular result in Austin. If Ferrari scores nothing and Mercedes finishes first and second, the gap would rise to 177 points. With 172 points available over the four grands prix after Mexico, Mercedes could then clinch the title there by ensuring Ferrari does not outscore it by six or more points.

That scenario is a demanding one. Mercedes has not yet taken a full grand-prix points haul in a race where Ferrari scored none, and it has outscored the Scuderia by an average of 7.6 points per round so far. If that margin continued over the next two races, Mercedes’ advantage would reach about 149 points after Mexico—leaving Brazil as the likeliest place for the team to seal the constructors’ crown.