Who can still win the 2026 Formula 1 World Championship?

The 2026 Formula 1 season is entering its decisive phase, and while Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes have built commanding championship leads, both titles remain mathematically open.

With nine Grands Prix and one Sprint still to come, however, there are still 233 points available to a driver and 402 to a constructor.

Which drivers can still win the championship?

Antonelli is firmly in control, but Russell remains his closest challenger on 211 points.

Behind them, Lewis Hamilton has 191, Lando Norris 186 and Charles Leclerc 167. All three remain comfortably inside the mathematical window, although each would need a strong run of victories combined with several difficult weekends for Antonelli.

Max Verstappen can still reach a maximum of 378 points, while Oscar Piastri remains mathematically alive with a possible total of 353.

The final two drivers still technically in contention are Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson.

Hadjar has 71 points and could reach 304 if he scored every remaining point. Lawson is hanging on by the smallest possible margin: his current 59 points plus the 233 still available would take him to 292, exactly Antonelli's current total.

Pierre Gasly is therefore the first driver already eliminated from championship contention.

Antonelli has a huge advantage

Antonelli's position is increasingly comfortable.

The Mercedes driver has won eight of the first 14 Grands Prix, including consecutive victories at Monza and Madrid, and has led the championship since Japan.

His maximum possible total is 525 points, but the crucial point is that he no longer needs anything close to perfection.

Russell can still reach 444, Hamilton 424 and Norris 419, so all three remain genuine mathematical challengers.

Further back, the scenarios become increasingly theoretical.

Antonelli is also chasing history. If he converts his advantage into the title, he would become Formula 1's youngest World Champion, something Kimi Raikkonen backed him to achieve earlier this season.

Russell remains the main threat

Russell is the only driver within 100 points of Antonelli, making him the most immediate championship rival.

Mercedes has so far resisted prioritising one driver over the other, having previously ruled out favouring Antonelli in the title fight.

But the gap has continued to grow.

Another major swing towards Antonelli in Baku could put Russell under serious pressure heading into the final part of the season.

Hamilton and Norris still have a chance

Hamilton and Norris are separated by just five points in the battle behind Mercedes.

Ferrari has shown enough pace to win races this year, while Norris has been particularly strong in recent rounds.

The defending World Champion won in Hungary and Zandvoort and was also in contention in Madrid before unfortunate VSC timing handed Antonelli the strategic advantage.

As we analysed after the race, Norris had virtually no winning strategy available once the VSC appeared.

Both Hamilton and Norris remain close enough that a strong sequence of results could bring them back into the championship fight.

Which teams can still win the Constructors' Championship?

Only four constructors remain mathematically alive:

• Mercedes: 503 points
• Ferrari: 358
• McLaren: 306
• Red Bull: 230

Mercedes can still reach a maximum of 905 points, while Ferrari could finish on 760, McLaren on 708 and Red Bull on 632.

Racing Bulls, currently fifth, is already eliminated because even a perfect finish to the season would leave it below Mercedes' current total.

The Constructors' Championship therefore looks considerably more difficult to overturn than the Drivers' title.

Ferrari is Mercedes' closest challenger, but still trails by 145 points.

McLaren faces a 197-point deficit, while Red Bull would need to recover 273.

The championship picture heading into Baku

For now, nine drivers and four constructors can still mathematically win the 2026 Formula 1 championships.

Antonelli and Mercedes remain in control, but the size of the remaining points pool means neither title is secure yet.

The situation could change quickly over the next few rounds.

Baku is followed by a crucial run towards the final phase of the season, and every significant swing from this point will eliminate more contenders.

For Antonelli, the objective is increasingly simple: keep scoring heavily and force everyone behind him to chase.

For the rest, the margin for error is disappearing fast.